Alpha Investment Newsletter
Stay Ahead in 2016 and Beyond...
The S&P500 Gained 70% in 2009 on Rebound from 2008 Collapse; Gained Further 20% in 2010, Closed Flat in 2011, Gained 12% in 2012, and Gained 40% in 2013-2014. The Central Banks have supported the Global Economy like never before.
Despite Fewer Jobless Claims, the US Economic Recovery is not strong. Many Jobs are Part-time and Wages are stagnant.
Emerging Markets are struggling with everything possible - Inflation, Deflation, and Low Growth.
Zero percent interest rates are holding up the Global Economy. For how long can it work? Can it help us muddle through? US Fed rate hikes will cause major turbulence in many industries that have got used to free capital over last 8 years.
Banks, States and Countries Can Still Fail in 2016-2017 just like in 2008, Taking Everyone Down. But the same uncertainty offers opportunity.
Meanwhile, the Global Equity Markets are at their highest levels. NASDAQ hit 5000 in March 2015 – first time after year 2000!
Where Are We Headed From Here? When Should You Stay In the Market and When Should You Exit?
As An Investor, You Know The Importance Of Timely And Actionable Market Analysis.
Stay Ahead with Alpha Investment Newsletter...today in 2016, and beyond.
Charts of the S&P500 Index illustrate a roller-coaster ride of peaks and valleys, but in the end, "buy and hold" investors are left pretty much left stuck in the mud when wild market swings take away profits earned over several months. However, if you sell off at higher levels and buy-back back at lower levels, then you can do much better than the Index. We have been gaining from this approach for a long time.
Our subscribers are based in North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. Our simple weekly newsletter tells what we are going to do in the coming week: buy, hold, or sell. We trade only with 3 Index ETFs.
Some Recent Benefits:
Trading Index ETFs is profitable when you buy during market falls, exit the market at a high point, and buy back your ETFs at lower prices again. Our newsletter will have the information on when to buy and sell — you just have to use it!
Please Note: Our newsletter can also be used for Index Futures trading for good results, but Index Options trading is a very different ball game due to time value, and we don't advise option trading with our newsletter.
The global capital markets take cue from the US, and S&P500 and Dow Jones are the indexes to watch from across the world.
The goal of Alpha Investment Newsletter is to give you a regular update on the Global stock markets (using key indices) and to keep you aware of the key developments affecting the market and to guide you with specific inputs in terms of buy and sell that we are doing for our own portfolio.
We publish our weekly newsletter by email along with summary of the market and any essential notes or action items that may be needed in case of unexpected/extreme market behavior.
Who Can Benefit and Who Can Not?
Our newsletter is aimed for investors who want to make profits from investing in stocks/ETFs by trading just about 10 times in the entire year; its not for day-traders or short-term traders or derivative traders.
So we won't be giving intraday trading calls or daily trading calls - that is not the goal of this newsletter. It is very difficult to successfully predict such short duration changes in the market. The goal of our newsletter is to identify the broad trends in the market and to use them in such a way that we are reducing the risk of our investment and staying in the investment only when the market conditions are favorable for a positive movement and growth of our investment.
Money Saved Is Money Earned...
The market forces are powerful and they affect stocks across industries. Even the best companies took a big beating when the market crashed in 2008 and early 2009. That's a clear example of how irrespective of the quality of the company and the quality of earnings, when the market sentiments are bad, the stock prices will go down along with the market. One stock may fall 30%, while other may fall 50%, but both are large falls and what we want to do is to give you inputs to help you exit the market at times when we believe the situation is not favorable and a correction in prices is overdue. That is a big money-saver in our experience.
Our investing experience has shown that it’s possible to have run a profitable investment with just about 6-15 trades per year, spending much less time on managing the portfolio. Our profitable portfolio has just 5 components, including cash, and it is very easy to replicate at your end.
A common myth in the market is that you have to trade a lot to have high returns - its not true. When you trade a lot you also have very high brokerage costs and you are also likely to miss some of the larger trends in chasing some of the smaller trends. Our experience has been that it is most profitable to work with larger market trends -- seek 10-20% gains rather than 2-3% gains in short term trades -- to stay invested when the trends are positive, as opposed to day-to-day trading, which is what most traders do.
We believe in moving out of out ETFs/stocks into cash when the markets are not looking favorable. In fact the market's technical indicators often give warning signals before the markets start falling, which is when most people start to take notice and that is one of the big benefits of our newsletter where we are able to protect the portfolio from any significant losses like in 2008.
Therefore, one of the biggest benefit of following our portfolio updates is that your losses can be limited in the event of major market falls -- we are likely to have a couple of them in 2010 and 2011 -- because the moment we see weakness/bearishness in the market through technical indicators we will move away from ETFs/stocks into cash and you can consider doing the same.
After we have exited the ETF, sometimes the market may continue to move further before finally coming down. We prefer to lose some extra gain than to lose investment capital, especially when global investors tend to pull money out with great speeds. Thus, exiting the market while it is still bullish reduces the risk of facing a rapid corrections which can take the market down by 5 to 10 percent within 2 or 3 trading sessions and this has happened several times in the past and it will surely happen in the future too.
The markets will never rise too much in a few days but the markets can fall rapidly within a few days. So it’s very important to protect the portfolio and investments from extreme falls and that is something that we ensure that we are using the indicators to cut out of the market at the weak signals and then come back into the market when the weakness is gone.
Sometimes the weakness remains for a few days; sometimes the weakness remains for a few months. It’s okay as we must maintain cash when we are not in a positive market because cash is the best way to preserve the value of the portfolio.
We share planned portfolio updates in our monthly newsletter, with updates every weekend. If there is an important/urgent market development, then we may mail you mid-week. Otherwise, in the course of normal market behavior, we don’t need to do anything except to stay on the course.
We will let you know by email when the market course is changing so that you can take the action that we have already taken so we can stay in sync and take the same actions.
So our newsletter will be an informative source for you to see how we are managing our portfolio and it’s up to you to take how much action you want to do. If you were to copy our actions, you would get the same gains and you would have the same protection to your portfolio. And in addition to that you can use our market analysis to plan your own portfolio in a bigger or a narrower way as your case may be.
We are long term investors, and do not want to take any intra-day trading. Our portfolio can be managed by looking at the ETFs/portfolio once a week or maybe 2-3 times per week if you want to be active, and in that sense whenever there’s an important message you will get it by email and you can take an action on that and we will let you know in advance that this is a good time to buy or this is a good time to sell and exit to market. That’s how we can benefit.
Please Note: We will not be able to advice on any individual stocks or individual questions because this is a newsletter service. We do our analysis; we publish the newsletter. You can read the newsletter and use it in whichever ways you think it’s most beneficial for you. For any individual queries on any investments you can speak with a certified financial advisor or certified financial planner.
We will be doing the actions on our own portfolio and you can consider doing the same – that’s the fundamental message that we have and we will continue to see newer opportunities in the market so if you find something which is an attractive investment opportunity we will add that into our portfolio and in that sense, through our portfolio, not only you will understand when to enter the market; when to exit the market, you will also learn about newer investment opportunities, some of which you could consider for your own investments as well.
We have the following model portfolio:
1. US S&P 500 ETF (covers US market) - 40%
2. India Index ETF (covers high growth market of India) - 30%
3. Hang Seng Index ETF (covers high growth of China & Far East) - 20%
4. Cash (as gold ETF) - 10%
The ETF details are shared with subscribers. All are available for investors in the USA and Europe.
Thus our newsletter covers three major markets across the world - covering the western world in the US and Americas and the Asian markets. We have seen major interest in emerging markets from investors in USA and our portfolio has received good response.
Following is a sample set of trades from our model portfolio.
From March 2007 to April 2010, our Simple ETF-based portfolio delivered 127% gain compared to 13% loss in S&P 500 ETF over the same time period.
When we buy the Index ETF (S&P 500 SPDR ETF), we are buying the entire market, which eliminates company specific risks. In my 15 years of market experience, the single biggest risk to investment capital comes from company specific risks, like lawsuits, some corporate governance issue, some plant accident, and the stock loses 20% overnight. Fund managers may say they are good at stock-picking but it’s really difficult to pick winners on a consistent basis. The difficultly with stock picking is that even after you have identified a winner, you can't load all your capital on one stock. So you need at least 4-5 winners to load your capital, and that's really difficult even for good fund managers. Capital moves with great speed between stocks and sectors. No fund manager can match the speed of capital movements. In addition, even top quality stocks can run into trouble. For example, a blue chip like Goldman Sachs fell almost 25% over 2 weeks in April 2010 due to legal issues.
The market is very intelligent and it’s difficult to beat the market in long term. Despite the best efforts most actively managed funds are unable to beat the market for durations over a year or two, because the market is a very intelligent creature – it’s the collective brain of all professional investors and fund managers who are trying to out-perform others and they are all operating within the market!
Because we use only Index ETFs, you don't need any stock-specific research and you have no stock specific risk.
Please note that most recent portfolio updates will not be posted on the website; they are available only to our subscribers. Our portfolio of sample trades will be updated on our website and you can see how they are performing. We hope you will have a profitable investment journey with us and we look forward to having you as a subscriber.
Following are the Frequently Asked Questions by our subscribers. You will find most of your answers here, and if you still have a question, please contact us and we will reply promptly.
Subscribe Today And Start Benefiting from Our Market Insights!
You can start benefiting from our newsletter right away, and stay the market when it’s bullish and exit when it’s bearish. Make our market insights work for you.
6 Month Subscription (for investors under 1 year timeframe)
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2 Year Subscription (best value for long term investors)
Please Note: After making the subscription, please send us an email telling us about your location and the markets your investment, so that we can help you better: info @ alphainvestmentnewsletter.com
Payments are processed by PayPal and taken by MyOrbit Ltd. The subscription fee is very nominal compared to the benefits you would get. You could recover your subscription fee within 2-3 newsletters, buying and selling the ETFs at suitable times. Our ETF based portfolio completely removes stock specific risk. Remember, even a blue-chip like Goldman Sachs lost 25% value within 2 weeks in May 2010. For long term investors, its best to buy the Index ETFs in India and China, along with US market index ETFs like S&P 500 Index ETF (SPY).
Once you subscribe, we will add your email id in our subscription list, and you will start receiving our investment newsletter every weekend. If something is really important, then we may mail mid-week, but it’s rare. We look forward to sharing our market insights and portfolio updates with you, to help you make better investment decisions. We reserve the right to revise the above subscription fee periodically.
Satisfaction and Money Back Guarantee
While we can't reduce market risks for you, we can surely remove the subscription risk with our Satisfaction Guarantee. If you are not fully satisfied with our investment newsletter for any reason, please contact us anytime within 90 days from your subscription date, and we will give you 100% refund. We prefer to have your trust than your money. Wishing all the best with your investments.
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